Restatus · Independent accountability

Restatus Forecast Tracker

How Australia's major banks are tracking against the market on their property-price calls — held to the call they made going in, by the same rules for everyone.

Benchmark: Cotality Home Value Index, national dwelling values. Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) provides the index, so it is the ruler, not a contestant. Capital-city forecasts are scored against Cotality's 8-capital-city index, on their own board.

Tracked against the market

Each bank vs the Cotality index it forecasts on, over time

Cotality · national (actual)Cotality · 8 capital cities (actual)hollow = YTD so far (not final)

CBA · nationalNAB · capital cityANZ · capital city

Each bank's call of record against the Cotality ruler it publishes on — the solid line is the national dwelling index, the maroon dashed line the 8-capital-city index (they sat at +8.6% and +8.2% for 2025, so they nearly overlap). CBA is measured against national; ANZ and NAB against capital cities. 2026 isn't final — the hollow rings mark the Cotality year-to-date (national −1.5%, capitals −3.0%, to Aug 2026), sitting well below every bank's call.

Calendar 2025 — the boards

Ranked by error vs the benchmark · lower is better

Calendar 2025 · National dwelling values

The market rose far faster than the field expected. Banks reporting on the national basis appear here.

Rank	Forecaster	Forecast of record	Error	Direction
1	CBAbank	+4.0%made 15 Dec 2024 · Source ↗ — CBA Newsroom, 6 Aug 2025 (states the 2025 forecast was 'up from 4 per cent')	4.6 pp	✓ right

Actual — Cotality Home Value Index, national dwelling values:+8.6%

Calendar 2025 · Capital-city dwelling values

ANZ and NAB both publish an 8-capital-city number, so they are scored against Cotality's capital-city index — never restated as a national figure.

Rank	Forecaster	Forecast of record	Error	Direction
1	NABbank	+3.5%made 15 Dec 2024 · Source ↗ — NAB (8-capital-city dwelling price index); NAB Q2 2025 survey states the forecast 'was 3.5%'	4.7 pp	✓ right
2	ANZ Researchbank	+0.9%made 12 Feb 2025 · Source ↗ — ANZ Research, Australian Housing Outlook: Cyclical slowdown, 12 Feb 2025 (capital-city housing prices)	7.3 pp	✓ right

Actual — Cotality Home Value Index, capital cities dwelling values:+8.2%

How the calls compared

The market rose +8.2% over 2025 — well above the field. Every forecast of record under-called the year. The vintage view (each forecaster's successive calls) fills in as more periods are captured.

Now in play

Scored when each period closes

Calendar 2026 · National dwelling values

in progress

CBAmade Aug 2025 · Source ↗

+4.0%+5.5 pp above YTD

Actual so far — national dwelling values, YTD to Aug 2026:-1.5%not final

Calendar 2026 · Capital-city dwelling values

in progress

Capital-city calls, kept separate from the national board.

NABmade Sept 2025 · Source ↗

+6.0%+9.0 pp above YTD

ANZ Researchmade Dec 2025 · Source ↗

+5.8%+8.8 pp above YTD

Actual so far — capital cities dwelling values, YTD to Aug 2026:-3.0%not final

How we score

One ruler

Every forecaster is measured against the same benchmark — the Cotality HVI — for the same period and on the same basis (national vs capital-city).

The call you made going in

We score the forecast standing at the start of the period. Later revisions are recorded, but don't change the score.

Error, in plain points

The gap between forecast and actual, in percentage points. Smallest gap ranks first. That's the whole ranking.

Shown, with receipts

Every figure links to its source, captured on the day. Corrections are assessed openly, never auto-applied.

Submit a correction

Think a figure here is wrong, out of date, or misattributed? Tell us, with a source. We assess every correction against the evidence and, if it stands, we publish the fix — we never quietly change a scored figure.